Fragile Peace and Persistent Wars: A Global Overview of Unresolved Conflicts and Emerging Risks

BIPSS Research Associate Mohosina Mostofa Mity argues that today’s international system is defined less by the outbreak of new wars than by the persistence of unresolved ones, where violence is managed rather than resolved. Contemporary conflicts—from Ukraine and Gaza to Sudan and Myanmar—are sustained by institutionalized ceasefires, external political and economic interests, and growing non-traditional risk multipliers such as climate stress, food insecurity, and digital disinformation. Ceasefires often function as containment tools that reduce immediate harm without addressing deeper political causes, while external actors prioritize influence and risk control over decisive settlement. As wars drag on, civilians bear the greatest cost through displacement, humanitarian collapse, and long-term social erosion. The paper concludes that realistic progress is more likely to come through incremental, locally grounded measures—linking aid and military support to political goals, protecting essential services, and broadening mediation beyond elites—rather than through ambitious but unattainable comprehensive peace agreements.