Deterrence Without Declaration: A Measure for States to Signal Power Below the Threshold of War

BIPSS Research Intern Naima Jinat explores in this commentary how sub-threshold warfare has become a strategy for many states to achieve their goals and interests in international political arena without getting entangled in overt armed conflict. This commentary describes the prominent features of sub-threshold warfare that make it distinct from hybrid and grey-zone war. The commentary also examines how Russia employed proxy forces, cyber operations, information warfare, military signaling, and economic coercion against Ukraine between 2014 and early 2022 to influence its strategic choices while avoiding direct large-scale conflict. In addition, it argues that the changes that sub-threshold warfare has brought in the arena of strategic deterrence will shape the future of neoteric deterrence, and along with many advantages, this particular type of war also has certain limitations. The commentary concludes that understanding sub-threshold warfare is essential for developing efficient deterrence strategies in the era of changing security threats.