Rakhine’s New Possible Statehood: Assessing the Arakan Army’s Strategic Move and Its Consequences

BIPSS Research Assistant Mohosina Mostofa Mity analyzed in this commentary how the Arakan Army’s rise in Rakhine has marked a major shift in Myanmar’s conflict, weakening the military junta and reshaping regional geopolitics. Its control over key trade routes and strategic assets forces Bangladesh, India, China, and global powers to reconsider their policies. The situation also raises critical questions about security, governance, and the future of the Rohingya crisis. As the AA consolidates power, its ability to establish stability and inclusive governance will determine its legitimacy. However, ethnic tensions, geopolitical rivalries, and economic stakes make Rakhine’s path to possible statehood highly complex and uncertain.