Syria’s Uncertain Future: The Rise of Extremist Groups in a Fragmented State

Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in late 2024, Syria faces renewed threats from extremist groups exploiting the country’s instability. The power vacuum has allowed jihadist factions, including IS and remnants of al-Qaeda, to regroup, while Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has emerged as a dominant force, attempting to legitimize its rule despite its extremist roots. IS is capitalizing on ungoverned spaces and weak security, with concerns of prison breaks fueling further violence. 

BIPSS Research Assistant Mohosina Mostofa Mity explored in this piece how the growing influence of radical factions, foreign fighters, and Iranian-backed militias can turn Syria into a hub for global terrorism. The international community faces a dilemma—whether to engage with HTS for stability or risk deeper extremism by isolating it. Without a coordinated response, Syria may spiral into another wave of jihadist-led chaos, threatening regional and global security.